FORTUCAST AGRICULTURAL VISIONS into the FUTURE
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FORTUCAST AGRICULTURAL VISIONS INTO THE FUTURE
- Grains will be food gold again.
- Will bull market continue for live cattle?
- 3-5 year forecast for grains
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*** SAMPLE EXCERPTS from March, 2010 issue ***
As we look out at the CRB and grains over the next five years, we do expect that “food gold” will dominate the commodity markets over the next 5-6 years--and with a few exceptions, prices will continue to keep climbing and daily fluctuations will become increasingly volatile. Global climate changes will continue to bring us bizarre weather pattern and increases in earthquakes and volcanoes will affect growing areas around the world. This past week even we had 6 aftershocks from the Chilean earthquake and an earthquake in Turkey and Tsunami’s from these quakes affecting different parts of the world. There is already a food shortage in many areas of the world and changing global conditions will not help on that score.
For 2010 we are expecting corn to reach at least 550 or 607 and beans to reach 1395 or 1907 and wheat to play tag-along. This is more likely to be a result of another spike higher in energy like 2008, which may be part of the first inflation cycle that hits us as part of dramatically lower interest rates leading to inflation and continued political and economic gyrations affecting the crude oil market.
There is a deflation cycle the second half of the year and we could see crude oil plummet and this would lead to a major fall into harvest time.
RAINFALL CYCLES FOR 2010: Each year since 1988, we have run our world rainfall cycles. Even though we do not have the time or the staff to monitor regional rainfall cycles, we can get a sense for the world. In 1988 we predicted the Midwest drought in our April 1988 issue and had people in grains very early. Since 1988 we have not seen a drought and we do not see one this year. It is no surprise that this will be another wet year with some similar patterns to last year. Spring wheat my go in late into the Dakotas again with potential flooding due high snowfall accumulations. Major snowfalls and snowmelts may create some late plantings in certain areas but we think that some cycles will support drier weather for planting.
The larger cycles in 2010 that have a great influence are watery and floody this year including the 2-year cycle, the 12-year cycle, the 29.5-year cycle and the 168-year cycle. The latter will have a floody influence over the next 10 years. Given these wetter larger cycles, we have to agree with the Farmer’s almanac below that is will be another wetter year in general and there will be more problems with harvesting and planting than usual.
The minor cycles show dry weather starting from March 20-June 26, which is on schedule for normal planting, but again the larger cycles are more likely to dominate this year and create delays.
We are not sensing that South American crops will have greater delays than normal with their harvesting and their huge crops are likely to continue to exert pressure on US prices in April.
OVERALL: Still, to our surprise based on new research, many cycles point up into March 25 and then sideways to lower into the report and then probably higher into the week after Easter. We looked closely at price targets and we are looking at 343 basis May and 356-61 basis July need to come in to complete patterns to the downside and then we should get a rally toward 550 and 607 into around June 28 and a secondary high into Jan. 2011.
SEASONALS: (3/15) Seasonal patterns are such that if corn makes a highs in March it often comes down into late April. This may end up being some kind of 2nd wave. Argentine harvest pressure may contribute to that seasonal and that seasonal could be open if snowmelt and rains come in April to delay plantings. While this is a wet year, April has a chance of not being as bad as last year but we still need to
WEEKLY CHART PERSPECTIVES: (3/10) Weather cycles are wet again this year and if we get delayed plantings again on top of more lost corn under the snow, this market will turn rather friendly fast. We are getting projections on July corn up to 607 into the typical hedging window into late June and early July. Again the problem will not be drought but too much rain and in the end, like previous years, the crop manages to soak it all up and do well. Also the trade is looking for 3 million more planted acres this year. We are still bullish this summer because of an inflation cycle into June due to a rally in crude. Concerns about fungus may help based on current rain but there will be hedging pressure. We have a very clear target of 361 into March 22.
LONGER TERM: (2/24) If crude takes off big time from March-June in 2010 and goes to 120 from a March/April low into June and the dollar tanks during that period, corn and other grains should have a nice run up. At the moment 607 is a target into late June for July corn. Usually entries for that play would happen around the first week of March 2010 but after the March 10 USDA report, it appears that it may take into the USDA plantings report and then we have to deal with a secondary low into around April 17-18.
TIMING: MAJOR DATES: March 17 (high); March 18-19 (low); March 25 (high); March 29-30 (low); April 5 (high); April 18 (high); April 26 (low).
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